Decisions, Decisions

Consulting and Seminars from

H.F. Lillywhite, Logical Learning and Consulting

503-649-7647 email: decisions@hfl-llc.com

The quality of our work and our lives depends, to a great extent, on the quality of the decisions we make.

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To Risk or not to Risk – one hour or two hours

Significant decisions inevitably come with some uncertainty and risk. Do we take action and accept the risk that comes with it? If we avoid action do we really avoid risk? Any opportunity brings risk. We may lose an investment if we undertake something new. However if we do not take that risk a competitor may do so, putting us at risk of losing business to his company. Or we may forgo the benefits available from taking action.

It is impossible to avoid risk in this life. What we can do is be wise about the risks we accept, those we try to avoid, and those we try to mitigate.

The purpose of this seminar is to help participants understand how risk affects their lives and how to deal with the risks they will inevitably face. Underlying the presentation is the proposition that in general we do not manage risk. What we manage is ourselves and self-management includes what we do with risk.

The course presents several examples but asks participants to provide their own examples of risks they face.

In the two hour version of this seminar, participants will spend time in small groups analyzing a real-world risk they face. A discussion will follow.

Basic seminar outline:

Introduction - The human mind does not automatically understand risk.
To risk or not to risk is not the question.
Alpha and beta (type 1 and type 2) risk
Risk is to ponder, not just calculate
Probabilities and expectations
Utility and expectation of utility
Risk tolerance